On 6 May 2020, President Rodrigo Duterte signed Executive Order No. 114, s. 2020 that institutionalizes the “Balik Probinsya, Bagong Pag-asa” program as a pillar for a balanced regional development. The program has identified key areas to achieve its goal of a balanced urban and rural development. These include empowerment of local industries, food security and agricultural productivity, social welfare, health and employment and development of infrastructure.
In this research and policy brief, we looked at results of the 2018 National Migration Survey to highlight migration patterns of Filipions and how a program on regional development such as the “Balik Provinsya, Bagong Pag-asa” fits in this narrative.
How does the population of regions grow?
The size of a population is affected by the interplay of three demographic factors: births, deaths and migration. The difference between the first two, that is: births minus deaths results to what is called a natural increase. When it comes to migration, results from the 2018 National Migration Survey (2018 NMS) identified NCR as the top migration destination and at the same time, the main source of migrants to other regions of the country.
The 2018 NMS, a survey that interviewed over 45,000 individual respondents 15 years old and over, found that 55% have ever migrated, i.e. have ever lived in a different city or municipality for at least three months. Of these migrants, the majority moved within the country (88%), some outside the country (5%) and the rest experienced both internal and international migration. NCR was the most popular regional destination for first time migrants followed by CALABARZON and Central Luzon.
The NMS also asked about recent migration or change in residence five years prior to the survey. Among respondents 15 years old and older who have ever experienced migration, 15% have changed residence in the past five years prior to the survey. Majority moved within the country (84%), while a few lived in another country (14%). The rest changed residence both within the country and outside the country.
Why do we move?
Similar to international migration, internal migration is driven by economic reasons. Forty six percent of Filipinos who moved from one city or municipality within the country did so in search of employment. In addition, housing-related reasons (e.g. rental issues, bough a house) was the second most common reason cited by respondents. Other reasons for moving are related to life events such as education or marriage.
Majority of internal migrants in the past 5 years are in their prime productive and reproductive agens. More than half (57%) are below 30 years old and a mere 5% are 50 years old and over. They are mostly married (55%) or never married (39%). Thirty five percent are high school graduates and another 36%% did not finish high school. More unemployed have moved within the Philippines in the past five years compared to the employed.
Filipinos’ mobility and the regional development program
Filipinos are characterized as mobile people. In times of crisis, migration has been one of the adaptive strategies employed by Filipinos both at the individual and household levels. To what extent a public health crisis such as COVID – 19 will change Filipinos’ migratory behavior remains to be seen.
Will a “Balik Probinsya program” provide some hope? If the idea is to decongest overpopulated regions, it will take more than encouraging and/or providing incentives to people to go back on their places of origin. Some may not even have a place to go back to. It is the desire for better economic lives that compel most migrants to move and as long as cities and urbanized areas provide the lure and promise of better opportunities, people will continue to flock to these areas.
To some extent, the fact that we are seeing a negative net migration to NCR and Central Luzon suggests that there exists now preference among Filipinos to live in areas other than the capital region. In the case of NCR for example, the 2018 NMS reveals that 20% of residents aspire to move in the next five years, although most of them would still move to another municipality or municipality within NCR (30%) or to the adjacent regions of CALABARZON (30%) or Central Luzon (9%). Only 4% intend to move to Mindanao and 12% to the Visayas. Their motivations for migration are employment and housing related, the same main reasons why Filipinos have been migrating in the past years.
The “Balik Probinsya” program should recognize the economic triggers of population movements and should put in place regional development programs that will address the prevailing regional poverty differentials. Unless and until people perceive a more balanced regional development that address these socio-economic inequalities, it may be difficult to draw them back to the provinces. And when migrants indeed move back, we need to give them enough reason to stay there for good.
